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India and China locked in hydroelectric power struggle over Brahmaputra River

By bellecarter // 2025-10-21

• India has unveiled a $77 billion hydroelectric masterplan to harness the Brahmaputra River's vast potential, aiming to develop 76 gigawatts(GW) of hydroelectric capacity by 2047. This plan includes 208 large hydro projects across 12 sub−basins, with Arunachal Pradesh alone accounting for 52.2 GW of untapped potential.
• China's $167.8 billion mega dam project on the Yarlung Tsangbo, launched in July near the disputed border, raises concerns about reducing dry-season water flow to India and Bangladesh by up to 85 percent, potentially disrupting ecosystems and geopolitical leverage.
• The Brahmaputra dispute reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with India fearing loss of control over water resources to China and Bangladesh fearing control by India. China's state-controlled media frames the dam as a strategic necessity, while critics argue it is more about stimulating the economy than meeting energy demands.
• The construction of the world's largest hydroelectric station in the region by China is seen as a strategic move to reignite border conflict, with both nations locked in a high-stakes battle for regional dominance.
• As climate change intensifies water scarcity, the competition over transboundary rivers will likely shape future conflicts in South Asia, where control over water could determine geopolitical supremacy.

In a strategic move to counter China's upstream dam construction, India has unveiled a $77 billion hydroelectric master plan to harness the Brahmaputra River's vast potential. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) announced the ambitious project on Oct. 13, aiming to develop 76 gigawatts (GW) of hydroelectric capacity by 2047. This escalation in hydropower development underscores a deepening geopolitical rivalry between the two Asian giants, rooted in decades of border disputes and competing claims over transboundary water resources. The Brahmaputra River, originating in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangbo, flows through India's Arunachal Pradesh—a region also claimed by China—before reaching Bangladesh. India's plan includes 208 large hydro projects across 12 sub-basins, with Arunachal Pradesh alone accounting for 52.2 GW of untapped potential—more than double the capacity of China's Three Gorges Dam (22.5 GW). "India's CEA has not disclosed the total investment in the 200-plus large hydropower projects, but the figure is likely much higher, perhaps five to 10 times the investment in the transmission system," said Wang Weiluo, a Germany-based hydrologist. Phase one, running until 2035, will cost $21.7 billion, while phase two, extending to 2047, requires $51.35 billion. The initiative aligns with India's broader goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070. India's hydro push comes in response to China's $167.8 billion mega dam project on the Yarlung Tsangbo, launched in July near the disputed border. Analysts warn that China's upstream control could reduce dry-season water flow to India and Bangladesh by up to 85 percent, raising fears of ecological disruption and geopolitical leverage. Despite China's claims of surplus electricity, critics argue the project is more about stimulating a sluggish post-pandemic economy than meeting energy demands.

Geopolitical tensions and water security

The Brahmaputra dispute extends beyond energy needs, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions. "India fears losing control of its water resources to China, while Bangladesh fears losing control to India," said Hung Ming-te, a researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research. China's state-controlled media has framed the dam as a strategic necessity. A recent commentary on 163.com declared, "Whoever builds dams, diverts water and generates electricity near the source will have control." It acknowledged India's concerns as "not a conspiracy theory, but a geopolitical reality." Wang Weiluo noted that India's Siang River Hydropower Project—downstream from China's Medog County dam—could influence China's reservoir planning due to backflow effects. "The CCP intends to use the construction of the world's largest hydroelectric station in the region to reignite border conflict," he warned. "As India and China escalate their hydroelectric race, the Brahmaputra River has become a flashpoint in a broader struggle for regional dominance," BrightU.AI's Enoch points out. With climate change intensifying water scarcity, the competition over transboundary rivers will likely shape future conflicts in South Asia. For now, both nations remain locked in a high-stakes battle—one where control over water could determine geopolitical supremacy. Watch the video below where India reopens gates at Baglihar Hydroelectric Dam on the Chenab River. This video is from Cynthia's Pursuit of Truth channel on Brighteon.com.

Sources include:

TheEpochTimes.com Reuters.com BrightU.ai Brighteon.com

economy China politics India energy geopolitics renewable resources power source hydroelectric power power struggle energy supply Brahmaputra River water security water resources Arunachal Pradesh Yarlung Tsangbo regional dominance