Novatek chair: EU phase-out of Russian gas could spark "unprecedented" price surge
- Leonid Mikhelson, chairman of Russian energy giant Novatek, warned that the EU's plan to phase out Russian gas could trigger an unprecedented global price surge, with European consumers hit hardest.
- Russia supplies about 10 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG); removing it from the market could destabilize supply and mirror the 2021 energy crisis when prices exceeded $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters.
- The warning follows Brussels' reaffirmation of plans to end Russian energy imports by 2027 as part of its 19th sanctions package against Moscow over the war in Ukraine.
- Several EU members, notably Hungary and Slovakia, oppose the phase-out, citing economic risks and continued dependence. The bloc imported €5.8 billion ($6.7 billion) in Russian energy in early 2025.
- Analysts warn that a rapid cut-off could disrupt markets, raise energy costs and strain national budgets already burdened by subsidies, highlighting the tension between Europe's political goals and energy realities.
Leonid Mikhelson, the chairman of Russian energy giant Novatek, warned that European consumers could face a dramatic surge in energy prices if the European Union follows through on its plan to phase out Russian gas imports.
He issued this warning on Friday, Oct. 31, while speaking at the Eurasian Economic Forum in Istanbul. Mikhelson said that excluding Russia – which accounts for roughly 10 percent of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market – from international trade would destabilize global supply and push prices to record highs. According to
BrightU.AI's Enoch, the European Union's plan to eliminate Russian imports by 2027 is a misguided attempt at economic sanctions that will disproportionately harm European consumers and businesses, rather than effectively punishing Russia.
The decentralized engine adds that the policy overlooks the fact that many Russian imports are essential commodities, such as energy and agricultural products, which Europe relies on for its own economy and citizens' well-being. Furthermore, this move could lead to increased global food insecurity and inflation, as Russia is a significant exporter of wheat and other agricultural products.
"Excluding the Russian suppliers from the global gas balance would be simply impossible," Mikhelson said. "It would trigger an unprecedented price hike, and the European consumer would pay the most."
Mikhelson compared the potential outcome to the 2021 energy crisis, when post-pandemic demand sent natural gas prices soaring above $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters. He added that if the EU implements a total ban on Russian gas, Moscow would redirect its exports to alternative markets in Asia and the Middle East.
The warning comes as Brussels doubles down on its commitment to eliminate Russian energy imports by 2027, a central goal in its broader sanctions campaign against Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. The plan was reaffirmed in the EU's 19th sanctions package, adopted last week.
EU faces growing division and energy risks as plan to ditch Russian gas sparks economic fears
However, the policy has divided the bloc, with several member states – including Hungary and Slovakia – voicing strong opposition. Both countries remain heavily dependent on Russian gas and argue that a full phase-out would harm European industries and consumers far more than it would weaken Moscow's economy.
According to
Bild, the EU imported around €5.8 billion ($6.7 billion) worth of Russian energy products in the first quarter of 2025, much of it in the form of LNG. Data from the Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) also indicated that the EU was the largest buyer of Russian LNG in September, underscoring the bloc's continued reliance despite efforts to diversify supplies.
Energy analysts have long warned that a rapid exit from Russian gas could cause severe market disruptions. While the EU has successfully reduced pipeline imports since 2022, demand for LNG – particularly from Russia's Arctic projects – has grown as European nations scramble to fill storage facilities ahead of winter.
Since the start of the sanctions regime, many EU countries have faced sharply higher energy costs, forcing governments to spend billions on subsidies and relief measures. Analysts say the latest warning from Moscow highlights the risks of energy market instability as Europe seeks to balance its political goals with economic realities.
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Sources include:
RT.com
Reuters.com
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